Dead Reckoning

This weekend, I went to the cinema to watch Tom Cruise’s “Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One.” Initially, I had planned to see “Chang’an 30,000 Miles,” but it was too popular, and there were no good seats left, so I opted for “Mission: Impossible” instead.

The plot was predictable as usual, but with a timely addition of an evil AI. Tom Cruise is still as charming as ever, running fast and performing daredevil stunts like riding a motorcycle off a cliff.

The pacing of the movie was well-controlled, featuring not only intense action sequences but also moments of romance with Tom Cruise. It’s a solid commercial film with some humorous scenes thrown in.

Looking at this year’s movie market data, July’s box office alone has already surpassed 30 billion yuan, exceeding the total for all of last year. With the upcoming National Day Golden Week, it’s expected to return to pre-pandemic levels. The reasoning behind this prediction includes the current high attendance rates, the fact that movie ticket prices have risen by at least 40% since three years ago, and that the average price of a regular 2D movie ticket has jumped from around 30 yuan to over 45 yuan, with popular showtimes costing even more.

If the film industry can recover, it suggests that consumers are starting to spend on non-essential goods again. However, the recovery of the film industry does not necessarily indicate that the overall economy is improving.

1. Various factors affect the film industry: besides economic factors, there are film quality, cultural, and social influences like popular IPs, star power, and even weather and holidays. These factors can decouple the film industry’s performance from the overall economic situation. For example, Tom Cruise’s “Mission: Impossible” is undoubtedly more popular than Wang Baoqiang’s “In the Octagon.”

2. Regional influence: The prosperity of the film industry might only reflect the economic boom of a specific region or demographic and not the entire country’s or the global economy. Cities with predominantly young people will have a more vibrant film industry than aging cities.

3. Non-essential goods: Movies are non-essential goods, and their consumption is more affected by the economic situation compared to basic necessities like food and housing. Therefore, even if the economy is down, consumption of necessities may remain stable, while movie ticket sales may decline.